Opening Gambit: Contingency Plans

“No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” — Helmuth von Moltke

Every decision point has at least two backup options. We don’t pretend to know what will happen — we prepare for multiple outcomes.

PHASE 0: SETUP

Decision: When to launch alpha test posts?

OptionTriggerContent
A (Default)All systems confirmed workingalpha0001-0003 as planned
B (Accelerate)Competitor moves firstLaunch immediately, fix in flight
C (Delay)Critical bug discoveredHold until fixed, private beta instead

Decision: First 10 recipients selected?

OptionTriggerAction
A (Default)Mother-in-law selects all 10Proceed with onboarding
B (Partial)Only 5-9 identifiedLaunch with available, continue search
C (None ready)Selection delayedFounder selects first 3, delegate rest

PHASE 1: THE OPENING

Decision Point 1: MacKenzie Scott Letter

If Response Is…Contingency AContingency B
IgnoredProceed to Buffett at 100 membersReference Scott publicly as “pending”
Polite declineThank publicly, ask for referralPivot messaging to member success
Connection offerDrop everything, follow up 24hCreate dedicated onboarding path
Negative/criticismPublish response, address directlyReference Anticipated Criticism docs

Decision Point 2: Membership Growth Rate

If Growth Is…Contingency AContingency B
Stalled (<50 in 30 days)Increase First X bonus to 3xPivot to geographic focus (one city)
Slow (50-100 in 30 days)Extend Buffett trigger to 150Add referral bonus campaign
On track (100+ in 30 days)Proceed as plannedPrepare for Phase 2 acceleration
Explosive (500+ in 30 days)Cap onboarding, quality checksActivate emergency Harper training

Decision Point 3: Warren Buffett Letter (at 100 members)

If Response Is…Contingency AContingency B
IgnoredProceed to The 300Reference publicly, proceed
Interest expressedPrioritize investor deck prepArrange demo/presentation
Delegation to staffTreat as connection, follow upAdjust letter for staff audience
CriticismAddress publicly, reference papersPivot to operator letters first

Decision Point 4: The 300 Crown Letters

If Response Is…Contingency AContingency B
<10% response ratePersonalize follow-upsShift to warm introductions only
10-30% response rateOn track, continueAdd case studies from early wins
>30% response rateAccelerate identificationCreate waiting list for overflow
Negative backlashPause outreach, address concernsPivot to grassroots first

PHASE 2: THE MIDDLEGAME

Decision Point 5: First Node Application

If Application Is…Contingency AContingency B
Strong candidateFast-track Harper reviewDocument process for replication
Weak candidateCoaching program firstSuggest partnership with stronger operator
Multiple applicationsCreate selection criteriaGeographic diversity priority
No applicationsSeed first node internallyPartner with existing organization

Decision Point 6: First Harper Certification

If Outcome Is…Contingency AContingency B
Candidate qualifiesPublicize, celebrateBegin second candidate pipeline
No candidates qualifyLower thresholds temporarilyCreate mentorship track
Multiple qualifyForm initial GuildCreate regional assignments
Candidate failsCoaching, retry in 90 daysAdjust selection algorithm

Decision Point 7: First Initiative Funding (Sweet 16)

If Outcome Is…Contingency AContingency B
Fully funded fastLaunch, document successBegin second initiative
Stuck at 50%Matching campaignSimplify scope, reduce target
No tractionPivot to different initiativeSurvey members for priorities
Over-fundedExpand scopeBank for future phases

PHASE 3: THE ENDGAME

Decision Point 8: Break-Even (500 local members)

If Reached…Contingency AContingency B
On scheduleCelebrate, expandDocument playbook
Ahead of scheduleVerify quality metricsPrepare for scale challenges
Behind scheduleAnalyze blockersGeographic pivot
Never reachedMerge nodesFundamental model review

Decision Point 9: Profitable (1,000 local members)

If Reached…Contingency AContingency B
Single node profitableReplicate modelAttract operator candidates
Multiple nodes profitableBegin network effectsReduce platform subsidies
Mixed resultsAnalyze differencesStandardize successful patterns

Decision Point 10: Asteroid-Proof Status

If Status Is…Contingency AContingency B
AchievedDocument, celebrateBegin succession planning
PartialPrioritize gapsAccept temporary manual processes
BlockedIdentify blockerBring in specialist help

MEDIA CONTINGENCIES

Positive Coverage

If Coverage Is…Action AAction B
Local pressAmplify, sharePrepare national pitch
National pressAll hands for responseCreate press kit updates
Viral socialPrepared cue cardsMonitor, engage authentically

Negative Coverage

If Coverage Is…Action AAction B
MLM accusationsReference Anticipated CriticismPublish comparison chart
Founder criticismTransparent responseLet community speak
Technical criticismFix if valid, explain if notInvite critic to review
Competitor attackIgnore unless factual errorsHighlight differentiation

ECONOMIC CONTINGENCIES

MARKS Economy Issues

If Issue Is…Action AAction B
Low circulationIncrease earning opportunitiesReduce spending requirements
InflationTighten issuanceAdd sinks (spending uses)
HoardingAdd holding costsIncrease velocity incentives

Joule Issues

If Issue Is…Action AAction B
Mass redemptionHonor commitments, adjust rateAdd redemption cooldown
No redemptionGood — value is growingCreate redemption incentives

IMPLEMENTATION

Display on Cephas

Each decision point links to:

  1. Full contingency details (this page)
  2. Anticipated Criticism reference (if applicable)
  3. Related innovations
  4. Current status indicator

Flowchart Visualization

See Opening Gambit Flowchart for interactive visualization.

Public Transparency

All contingencies are published. We hide nothing. This is building in public.

CROSS-REFERENCES

DocumentRelevance
Anticipated CriticismPre-answered objections
Trigger SheetEvent triggers
Viral CampaignsMarketing responses
Core PhilosophyFoundational principles

“We don’t predict the future. We prepare for multiple futures.”