Opening Gambit: Contingency Plans “No plan survives first contact with the enemy.” — Helmuth von Moltke
Every decision point has at least two backup options. We don’t pretend to know what will happen — we prepare for multiple outcomes.
PHASE 0: SETUP Decision: When to launch alpha test posts? Option Trigger Content A (Default) All systems confirmed working alpha0001-0003 as planned B (Accelerate) Competitor moves first Launch immediately, fix in flight C (Delay) Critical bug discovered Hold until fixed, private beta instead Decision: First 10 recipients selected? Option Trigger Action A (Default) Mother-in-law selects all 10 Proceed with onboarding B (Partial) Only 5-9 identified Launch with available, continue search C (None ready) Selection delayed Founder selects first 3, delegate rest PHASE 1: THE OPENING Decision Point 1: MacKenzie Scott Letter If Response Is… Contingency A Contingency B Ignored Proceed to Buffett at 100 members Reference Scott publicly as “pending” Polite decline Thank publicly, ask for referral Pivot messaging to member success Connection offer Drop everything, follow up 24h Create dedicated onboarding path Negative/criticism Publish response, address directly Reference Anticipated Criticism docs Decision Point 2: Membership Growth Rate If Growth Is… Contingency A Contingency B Stalled (<50 in 30 days) Increase First X bonus to 3x Pivot to geographic focus (one city) Slow (50-100 in 30 days) Extend Buffett trigger to 150 Add referral bonus campaign On track (100+ in 30 days) Proceed as planned Prepare for Phase 2 acceleration Explosive (500+ in 30 days) Cap onboarding, quality checks Activate emergency Harper training Decision Point 3: Warren Buffett Letter (at 100 members) If Response Is… Contingency A Contingency B Ignored Proceed to The 300 Reference publicly, proceed Interest expressed Prioritize investor deck prep Arrange demo/presentation Delegation to staff Treat as connection, follow up Adjust letter for staff audience Criticism Address publicly, reference papers Pivot to operator letters first Decision Point 4: The 300 Crown Letters If Response Is… Contingency A Contingency B <10% response rate Personalize follow-ups Shift to warm introductions only 10-30% response rate On track, continue Add case studies from early wins >30% response rate Accelerate identification Create waiting list for overflow Negative backlash Pause outreach, address concerns Pivot to grassroots first PHASE 2: THE MIDDLEGAME Decision Point 5: First Node Application If Application Is… Contingency A Contingency B Strong candidate Fast-track Harper review Document process for replication Weak candidate Coaching program first Suggest partnership with stronger operator Multiple applications Create selection criteria Geographic diversity priority No applications Seed first node internally Partner with existing organization Decision Point 6: First Harper Certification If Outcome Is… Contingency A Contingency B Candidate qualifies Publicize, celebrate Begin second candidate pipeline No candidates qualify Lower thresholds temporarily Create mentorship track Multiple qualify Form initial Guild Create regional assignments Candidate fails Coaching, retry in 90 days Adjust selection algorithm Decision Point 7: First Initiative Funding (Sweet 16) If Outcome Is… Contingency A Contingency B Fully funded fast Launch, document success Begin second initiative Stuck at 50% Matching campaign Simplify scope, reduce target No traction Pivot to different initiative Survey members for priorities Over-funded Expand scope Bank for future phases PHASE 3: THE ENDGAME Decision Point 8: Break-Even (500 local members) If Reached… Contingency A Contingency B On schedule Celebrate, expand Document playbook Ahead of schedule Verify quality metrics Prepare for scale challenges Behind schedule Analyze blockers Geographic pivot Never reached Merge nodes Fundamental model review Decision Point 9: Profitable (1,000 local members) If Reached… Contingency A Contingency B Single node profitable Replicate model Attract operator candidates Multiple nodes profitable Begin network effects Reduce platform subsidies Mixed results Analyze differences Standardize successful patterns Decision Point 10: Asteroid-Proof Status If Status Is… Contingency A Contingency B Achieved Document, celebrate Begin succession planning Partial Prioritize gaps Accept temporary manual processes Blocked Identify blocker Bring in specialist help MEDIA CONTINGENCIES Positive Coverage If Coverage Is… Action A Action B Local press Amplify, share Prepare national pitch National press All hands for response Create press kit updates Viral social Prepared cue cards Monitor, engage authentically Negative Coverage If Coverage Is… Action A Action B MLM accusations Reference Anticipated Criticism Publish comparison chart Founder criticism Transparent response Let community speak Technical criticism Fix if valid, explain if not Invite critic to review Competitor attack Ignore unless factual errors Highlight differentiation ECONOMIC CONTINGENCIES MARKS Economy Issues If Issue Is… Action A Action B Low circulation Increase earning opportunities Reduce spending requirements Inflation Tighten issuance Add sinks (spending uses) Hoarding Add holding costs Increase velocity incentives Joule Issues If Issue Is… Action A Action B Mass redemption Honor commitments, adjust rate Add redemption cooldown No redemption Good — value is growing Create redemption incentives IMPLEMENTATION Display on Cephas Each decision point links to:
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