Ghost Credits and Demand Validation: The tl;dr
Want the formal proofs? See: Full Academic Paper
The Problem in One Sentence
Most new products fail because nobody knew if anyone actually wanted them before they built them.
The Solution
Let people pretend to buy things before they exist.
The Three Phases
Phase 1: Ghost Shopping
People browse and “add to cart” items that don’t exist yet. They spend Ghost Credits — fake money that costs nothing. This tells us: would people even click on this thing?
Phase 2: Soft Pledge
If enough people Ghost-shopped, we ask: “Would you actually buy this if it existed?” People put down soft pledges with real credits. Still refundable. But now there’s skin in the game.
Phase 3: Launch
If soft pledges hit threshold, product goes live. Pledges convert to orders. Everyone who took the risk early gets “Forever Stamps” — permanent perks that never expire.
Why This Is Better Than Kickstarter
| Problem | Kickstarter | Ghost Credits |
|---|---|---|
| Have to build prototype first | Usually yes | No — test with just the idea |
| Early backers get… | A product eventually | Product + permanent status |
| Failed campaigns | Wasted money, public failure | Private data, no shame |
| Risk | Creator risks time; backer risks money | Both risks minimized |
The Math
Demand Signal = (Ghost Credit velocity × Time) + (Conversion Rate to Soft Pledge)
Launch Threshold = Minimum viable funding / Average pledge size
If your Ghost Credit velocity is high but conversion is low, people like the idea but won’t pay for it. If both are high, ship it.
The Wry Part
Kickstarter is asking strangers to marry you on the first date. Ghost Credits is texting first, then coffee, then dinner, then maybe talking about the future.
Revolutionary concept: find out if they’re interested before you spend six months building something.
Next: The 300 Framework — how to build an organization that works like 3,000 people with only 300